It was not easy to test our hypothesis empirically, since the information peaks happened some time ago. The evidence: How the Google search boom was associated with prevention behaviours in Chile Using Google Trends to Track Social Responses to COVID-19. HIIG Discussion Paper Series, 2020(1). How do Google searches relate to the decrease in the COVID-19 transmission trend? Source: Beytía, P., Cruz Infante, C. We illustrate that hypothetical process in the figure below:įigure 2. We think that the former could lead to a shift in people’s behaviour and therefore prompt downward movement in the contagion trend. Evolution of COVID-19 confirmed cases, Google searches and downward changepoints in recovering countries Source: authors, based on Google Trends Analytics and coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.īased on these findings, we believe that Google search trends could reflect the quantity of information people are getting about the virus and the measures that they should adopt to fight it. If we leave aside the unique case of China, where they discovered the virus and had to change the COVID-19 testing methods, the figure is just 4 days.įigure 1. In these countries, the downward turning point in the transmission rate occurred, on average, 7 days after the Google search peak. Before they had reached the downward changepoint in their contagion, every single country had reached a peak in Google searches for the term “coronavirus”. Yet, despite the immense diversity among those countries, we found a fascinating digital pattern. They have different climates, different political systems, different ethnic compositions and are even located on different continents. These “recovering countries” are surprisingly diverse. What could we learn from them? What do they have in common? Apparently, not so much. A Google search a day keeps the doctor away?įortunately, some countries have, to some extent, controlled the COVID-19 contagion trend: China, South Korea, Singapore, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. here, here and here) – in various places in the world. here and here) and influenza epidemics (eg. But, more importantly, in this case: it has been widely used to monitor infectious diseases – especially flu (e.g. In recent years, for example, this information has been used to predict phenomena as diverse as housing prices, financial markets, unemployment rates, travel destinations, political elections and the dissemination of cryptocurrencies. The second reason is that Google Trends have proven to be useful in observing people’s concerns and in predicting social, economic and public health patterns. These figures indicate enormous potential for understanding changes in the aggregate interests of large populations. Choosing our digital fieldwork: Google searchesįor us, the first reason for picking Google searches related to Google’s widespread use: it is the most visited website in the world, with more than 3.5 billion daily searches for information and with a share of more than 92% of the global search engine market. If privacy rights are properly protected, then the potential of digital methods to understand social behaviours is vast. In a pandemic, they also allow researchers to collect and process results faster and, importantly, while avoiding human contact. Such techniques are highly cost-effective and permit research from anywhere. Social researchers have already successfully developed digital methods and demonstrated their advantages and challenges (for example here, here, and here). So, how do we get similar quality findings in the context of a global quarantine, when human contact is highly dangerous and potentially lethal? Digital behaviour analysis could be the answer and could change the whole social research paradigm. The following video shows how, in recent weeks, dense networks of videos about the coronavirus crisis in different countries have been posted on YouTube:įace-to-face or in digital space? A new paradigm of social researchįocus groups, ethnographies and surveys have been the optimum methods when studying human habits. It has not just unleashed a wave of illness and death but has also led to unprecedented information generation. Does it make sense to associate digital information search with the containment of the pandemic?ĬOVID-19 and the boom in digital content generationĪt this point, COVID-19 hardly needs any introduction. Countries with a high peak in Google searches for the term coronavirus tend to reduce their COVID-19 infection rates.
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